The Next Five Years

For good or ill, for the first time since 2016, the UK is about to have a Government with the desire, will and confidence to reshape Britain in its image.

The Exit Poll has landed.

While we will not know the final details for a few hours, we know that Britain is about to undergo one of the largest political changes in its democratic history. It is the first general election in which I’ve known a good number of people standing, so I will be staying up to watch the results, to see which of them - friends, former colleagues, respected aquaintances - do, or do not, win their seats¹. But at this point it is about individuals, not the overall result.

The final results have turned out very close to this, though with Lib Dems outperforming and Reform underperforming. At time of writing Labour have 412, the Conservatives 119, Lib Dems 71, SNP 9, Greens 4 and Reform 4.

For good or ill, for the first time since 2016², the UK is about to have a Government that is willing to significantly change the law to achieve its ends - and will not be afraid to do so where necessary.

It will be a Government with the desire, will and confidence to reshape Britain in its image. It will have a plan³, have very definite values, and very specific things it wishes to achieve - and will care more about whether it succeeds in them than the short-term impact.

It will be a shock. We have become so used to a Government that spends years discussing and consulting upon almost unnoticeable changes to childcare or planning regulations or that spends two years talking about sending people to Rwanda but not doing so, that we have all but forgotten what decisive Government action looks like. Just look back at 1997 or 2010 to see just how many hugely significant things those Governments did in their first two years.

Labour will not dither. They will tax independent schools, like it or not. They will implement votes at 16. They will appoint their people to key roles - and when the Times screams they will not care - because they will have won a majority in which to implement their goals - and, most importantly, they know what those goals are. And to be clear: they absolutely should proceed in this way. They will have won a massive democratic mandate⁴ and have a right to govern - and to be judged in five years on whether or not their actions have made the country better or worse.

I have no doubt that they will do many things that I greatly dislike.

But I also dare to hope that they might also do a fair few things I like, also.

The UK is in a mess. Growth has stagnated, we can’t build anything, living standards have barely grown in 20 years.

In housing, energy, NHS reform and skills - to name just four areas - there is the potential for Labour to implement changes that would be broadly welcomed by many people across the political spectrum.

And these areas matter tremendously. If they are sufficiently successful in these areas, the benefit to the nation could be huge.

Starmer has presented himself, in many ways, as the ‘no drama’ candidate. The candidate who can “make a pragmatic argument for politics as a force for good that can make a material difference to people’s lives.” As an aides is reported to have said, “It’s not politics as spectacle. It’s politics designed to get better outcomes.”

The thing is, is that to do the 'no drama' stuff - cut waiting lists, build houses, increase median household income - Starmer will have to be radical. Our public sector has become sclerotic, fenced in with bureaucracy, judicialised, focused on process.

Is Starmer ready to cut the Gordian knots?

There's a chance he might be. He has, famously, been ruthless at purging the Corbynite left and enforcing his will upon the Labour party. More broadly, this week I was very encouraged to read an account of his actions as Director of Public Prosecutions during the London riots, which further suggests that he is willing to take bold action to achieve results. Perhaps the thing that resonated with me here was that the actions he took were likely against his instincts as a human rights lawyer⁵ - but he saw what was needed, and did it anyway.

But make no mistake, there is no 'boring' road to making UK work better. Any results will lie through quiet radicalism, bold action and taking on - and defeating - the powerful vested interests that argue for the status quo. Cutting through the bureaucracy, judicialisation and diffused accountability that prevents even actions which have widespread drama.

Not pointless drama - but not ducking decisions, either. We need a Thatcher or an Attlee. Can Starmer rise to it? It’s a tall order. But for the country’s sake, we can hope.

But what of 2029?

Predicting the future is a mug’s game. It is still less than three years since Gigantic Squatting Toad Day⁶ - and Tim Shipman is a much more astute man than I am. Who knows what could happen in the next five years? Maybe Starmer’s government will be tremendously popular, and he will become the next Tony Blair. Maybe the Tories will unite and find their mojo, turning crushing defeat into victory in a single term - as Starmer did. Maybe China will invade Taiwan and we’ll all have far bigger things to worry about.

But I think one outcome is underpriced - and that is a splintering.

Labour is not tremendously popular. It won on a historically low 34% of the vote - compared to Tony Blair’s 43% in 1997, or Boris Johnson’s 42% in 2019. YouGov polling shows that by far the biggest reason why people are voting Labour is not because of any positive sentiments about them, but to remove the Conservatives.

Right now, that doesn’t matter. But over five years, it means that the voter coalition is fragile, and may fall away easily. Voter volatility is at an all time high, with party loyalties disintegrating. And as the Conservatives have just found, if you come to power on the basis of a very disparate coalition, it is very hard to keep them all happy⁷.

And Labour will have to make hard choices. Debt is high, growth is low, the population is aging, a record number of people are out of work and, most fundamentally, productivity - the only real route to improving living standards or public services, is stagnant. NHS reform, planning reform, stopping the small boats, delivering Net Zero are all genuinely difficult things to do. Whether it is tax rises, public service cuts or radical reforms, these can be very difficult. The Coalition only just got re-elected. And Attlee, for all of his genuinely revolutionary reforms, was voted out of power in 1951.

At the same time though, will memories of 14 years of - now desperately unpopular - Conservative government have faded in just 5 years? Will the Conservatives have managed to get their mojo back? Possible - but equally challenging.

We see in the young in particular, that they are abandoning the centre and going to the fringes. We see it in Europe, we are starting to see it here. And for adults of ages, many saw Brexit as a panacea for their woes. Right now many look to a Labour Government as a savior. What will they look to after 5 years of difficult and painful decisions under Labour?

The final results show that Labour got only 34%. It’s not hard to see that falling to about 30%.

The Conservatives got 24%. It’s not hard to see that rising to about 30%.

Reform got 14%, the Greens 7%, and the Lib Dems 12%. It’s not hard to see those rising to 15%-20% each (maybe 10% - 15% for the Greens).

In short, the election in 2029 could see not Labour triumphant again, nor the Conservatives revived, but a further splintering.

This is not a prediction. Many things could happen. But it is a possibility.

And that would make our politics even more interesting⁸.

1. There are a few Labour candidates I know and wish well, too - but I’m afraid none of those contests are likely to be nailbiters.

2. Arguably one could also include the period from July 2019 - January 2020; but that was very much about one single issue.

3. Contrary to certain claims.

4. Though not the Mandate of Heaven; sadly, Xi Jin Ping still holds that one.

5. Human rights lawyers are not exactly known for favouring swift and decisive justice by shortening the trial process and increasing the sentences for criminals.

6. "Boris Johnson now squats like a giant toad across British politics. He has expanded the Overton window in both directions. Praising bankers and drug companies, while tight on immigration and woke history. Cheered for lauding the NHS and pro LGBT. Where does Labour find a gap?” Tim Shipman, October 6, 2021.

7. Admittedly, Partygate, Truss and the pandemic may also have had something to do with it.

8. Which may or may not be desired.