Really interesting, and I'm looking forward to this year's!
I think I underestimated both the Lib Dems and Reform due to status quo bias. Things are definitely in flux at the moment relative to the last few decades. (B is doing GCSE Politics - it's an interesting and challenging time to be doing that, and I wonder how quickly the materials will get outdated.)
I'd kinda hope the syllabus is a bit more long term principles and methods than short term 'this is how it is now'. Hopefully no one thinks the point of a GCSE politics course is that the student will be launching their run for office age 16.
True. But they were given a worksheet (not a textbook, a printed worksheet) with info about the main parties, and it said the Conservatives are currently in power. On the plus side, it did feature five main parties, including Reform, which many of us might not have done last January.
Is there a way of getting our own answers/score? (Probably the answer is "yes, if you recorded your answers when you input them" and you probably told us that last year when we entered)
I just tried this and using the median got 0.204, rather than 0.205 - so very similar.
Why do you think using median would generally be better? Scott Alexander (I think) uses mean - but I'm open to being persuaded either way. Is this something that has been written on/studied?
May I have my answers and score please? I have searched my emails but I cannot see a record of my answers. Sorry! Something along the lines of David Price for the alias hopefully!
Hi David, yes: you came 29th with a Brier score of 0.229 - great predicting!
Apologies, I don't have the system set up to send people a copy of their answers (to do that I would have to make it compulsory to give an email address, which I don't want to do).
The comment for question 19 is confusing me. If it went down, then "it was shorter" is true, isn't it?
Unfortunately you're correct - thank you for spotting. I've updated (including with amended rankings and scores).
"the winner of the contest was a woman" will also need updating.
Really interesting, and I'm looking forward to this year's!
I think I underestimated both the Lib Dems and Reform due to status quo bias. Things are definitely in flux at the moment relative to the last few decades. (B is doing GCSE Politics - it's an interesting and challenging time to be doing that, and I wonder how quickly the materials will get outdated.)
I'd kinda hope the syllabus is a bit more long term principles and methods than short term 'this is how it is now'. Hopefully no one thinks the point of a GCSE politics course is that the student will be launching their run for office age 16.
True. But they were given a worksheet (not a textbook, a printed worksheet) with info about the main parties, and it said the Conservatives are currently in power. On the plus side, it did feature five main parties, including Reform, which many of us might not have done last January.
Wow, congrats Martin, made all the more dramatic by the adjudication error!
Is there a way of getting our own answers/score? (Probably the answer is "yes, if you recorded your answers when you input them" and you probably told us that last year when we entered)
I will email them to you!
You should probably be using the median rather than the mean for the crowd.
I just tried this and using the median got 0.204, rather than 0.205 - so very similar.
Why do you think using median would generally be better? Scott Alexander (I think) uses mean - but I'm open to being persuaded either way. Is this something that has been written on/studied?
There’s a debate about which aggregation method to use. Median and Geometric mean of odds are often suggested. (See here: https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/acREnv2Z5h4Fr5NWz/my-current-best-guess-on-how-to-aggregate-forecasts). Basically nobody advocates for the arithmetic mean - outliers can screw you and it generally has a few properties that make it less useful.
Very interesting, thank you! I will have a read and decide which one to use for next year.
May I have my answers and score please? I have searched my emails but I cannot see a record of my answers. Sorry! Something along the lines of David Price for the alias hopefully!
Hi David, yes: you came 29th with a Brier score of 0.229 - great predicting!
Apologies, I don't have the system set up to send people a copy of their answers (to do that I would have to make it compulsory to give an email address, which I don't want to do).