I note that while the overall outcome was good for me, my calibration seems terrible.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 95% confidence, only 3 happened.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 90% confidence, only 3 happened.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 85% confidence, all happened.
Of the 9 things I predicted with 80% confidence, all happened.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 70% confidence, 3 happened (which seems well calibrated).
Of the 2 things I predicted with 50% confidence, 1 happened (which is well calibrated but meaningless).
I think I default to saying 80% for things I think very likely to happen (hence the large cluster of predictions at that level), but in fact such things happen more than 80% of the time.
Conversely, when I'm very confident that something will happen, I'm sometimes over confident. Of course this is only two bad predictions (Boris Johnson continuing as an MP and a British person winning the Nobel prize). In both those cases I over-indexed on the base rate, so I'm not sure whether a general conclusion as to my confidence level can be made.
I think that we all just did quite badly! I know I felt my calibration was poor and could have been a lot better.
I think though, considering yours, of your 90-95%, you actually were at 75%, which isn't awful. And with your 9 and 80%, though you could have done even better if you'd guessed 90%, that is still a very good outcome.
I was impressed that you skipped a quarter of the questions and still did so well. I wouldn't have thought that was a viable tactic, but it clearly was (and much better than guessing wildly!).
I note that while the overall outcome was good for me, my calibration seems terrible.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 95% confidence, only 3 happened.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 90% confidence, only 3 happened.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 85% confidence, all happened.
Of the 9 things I predicted with 80% confidence, all happened.
Of the 4 things I predicted with 70% confidence, 3 happened (which seems well calibrated).
Of the 2 things I predicted with 50% confidence, 1 happened (which is well calibrated but meaningless).
I think I default to saying 80% for things I think very likely to happen (hence the large cluster of predictions at that level), but in fact such things happen more than 80% of the time.
Conversely, when I'm very confident that something will happen, I'm sometimes over confident. Of course this is only two bad predictions (Boris Johnson continuing as an MP and a British person winning the Nobel prize). In both those cases I over-indexed on the base rate, so I'm not sure whether a general conclusion as to my confidence level can be made.
I think that we all just did quite badly! I know I felt my calibration was poor and could have been a lot better.
I think though, considering yours, of your 90-95%, you actually were at 75%, which isn't awful. And with your 9 and 80%, though you could have done even better if you'd guessed 90%, that is still a very good outcome.
I was impressed that you skipped a quarter of the questions and still did so well. I wouldn't have thought that was a viable tactic, but it clearly was (and much better than guessing wildly!).