Nick O'Connor here - social worker. I'd love to believe that I'm great at forecasting, but I suspect I did well because a) I got lucky, and b) I took the Brier scoring seriously - where I didn't know I put 50%, where I had a view but not much evidence to back it up I bumped that up to 60%ish.
Ironically, I may have done better as a result of following the news much less closely than I used to - I knew how ignorant I was compared to my past self, which might have given me a more accurate estimate of how ignorant I was in general.
I wonder what effect Restore Britain will have on questions 6-15: after about a week they're already bigger than the Lib Dems in terms of both membership and bookies' odds of winning the next GE (aggregated on oddschecker). I don't know whether they'll plateau here or continue this trajectory; but either way it's another surprise that probably nobody's predictions accounted for, in an already unusual political landscape.
Is there a way to check our full entry? I've already forgotten what I put for most of it.
Something wrong when I zoom in on the tables -- the image doesn't have the column on the right with the percentages.
I have just tried and the same for me. Very weird!
I will try to fix it this evening - apologies.
In the meantime, zooming in in the email does appear to work.
Thanks. I've unsubscribed from Substack emails because my inbox can't cope. Keeping it manageable is an ongoing battle :-(
Nick O'Connor here - social worker. I'd love to believe that I'm great at forecasting, but I suspect I did well because a) I got lucky, and b) I took the Brier scoring seriously - where I didn't know I put 50%, where I had a view but not much evidence to back it up I bumped that up to 60%ish.
Ironically, I may have done better as a result of following the news much less closely than I used to - I knew how ignorant I was compared to my past self, which might have given me a more accurate estimate of how ignorant I was in general.
I wonder what effect Restore Britain will have on questions 6-15: after about a week they're already bigger than the Lib Dems in terms of both membership and bookies' odds of winning the next GE (aggregated on oddschecker). I don't know whether they'll plateau here or continue this trajectory; but either way it's another surprise that probably nobody's predictions accounted for, in an already unusual political landscape.